In breaking news, Russia has finally signalled that its long-term friendship with the Assad regime in Syria may soon become a thing of the past. The Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov,  stated that "If the Syrians agree [on Assad's departure] between each other, we will only be happy to support such a solution," as quoted by The Guardian. "But … it is unacceptable to impose the conditions for such a dialogue from outside." Lavrov adds that Russia would be happy to back the dissolution of the Syrian regime “if that is what the Syrians want”. How endearing. In Lavrov and Putin’s heads, the fact that Syrians have been protesting against Assad for the past 14 months, launching a conflict that has claimed thousands of lives, does not seem to equate to the fact that they, do, in fact, want Assad to leave...

By referring to ‘imposing conditions from the outside’ Mr Lavrov is of course signalling the (however unlikely) possibility of external military intervention into the conflict in the style of the 2011 action in Libya, suggesting that giving the protesters the support of Western military power would skewer the power balance unfairly against Assad. The fact that the power balance is permanently skewered in the Syrian president’s favour as Russia continues to supply vast amounts of weaponry to him, remains unmentioned.

Russia has a clear interest in keeping Bashar al-Assad in power – Syria is a long-time ally of its in the region and its destabilisation has much more negative repercussions for the NATO states than it does for Putin’s regime. In fact, Russia profits from the ongoing conflict – not only geopolitically, but in a very real, tangible, monetary way. Russia remains the single biggest arms exporter to Syria – between 2007 and 2011 it provided 78% of the arms deliveries to the country. As the internal conflict escalates, arms supplied by the Russian company Rosoboronexport, have been used against civilians, over 10.000 of whom are documented as having been killed, many in air raids, using Russian jets and missiles. Could this be stopped? Of course – it would only be a matter of the UN Security Council imposing an embargo on arms transfers to Syria. Only – if Russia would withhold its veto, which it refuses to do, all the while reaping the monetary benefits. Paraphrasing Mr Lavrov, it is unacceptable to impose such an uneven playing field from the outside.

This latest statement is just another element in the long term political game that Russia is playing. While saying it, Lavrov was safe in the knowledge that Russia can support the abolition of Assad’s regime should there be an ‘agreement’ between Syrians on its dissolution. Even though Assad’s antagonists may be more numerous than his supporters, they can be easily overpowered with Russian-supplied arms and military equipment, and their opposition presented (as it is by the state controlled media of Russia and Syria) as a small group of extremists, who needed to be neutralised. A mutual agreement or a dialogue can only be achieved if the parties to it consider each other equal and play by the rules – which is clearly not the case in Syria, where government forces have been dealing with the opposition according to the ‘less talk, more action’ principle.

By vetoing UN resolutions on Syria, Russia is blocking all legitimate means for international action in the country, at the same time allowing the Assad regime to continue its unlawful attacks on its citizens. The Syrian conflict also exposes the extent to which  the uncontrolled arms trade, which allows suppliers with a stake in the conflict to reap profits, can aggravate a volatile political situation.  This exposes the inefficiency of the current modus operandi of the UN Security Council and its impotence in dealing with international crises. All systems of governance, including the international ones, need to be periodically reviewed to ensure they are still fulfilling their function. Perhaps it is high time for a review of the UN?

photo: http://www.flickr.com/photos/syriafreedom/6849022151/sizes/l/in/photostream/